DELPHI TECHNIQUE AND ITS ROLE IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Delphi Technique in Project Management
The Delphi Technique helps to arrive at a common solution for a described problem. For instance, the project manager here is quantifying risk for her project and requires expert advice. To come to a well-thought decision, he/she can use the Delphi Technique.
Delphi model involves a round of questionnaire followed by individual interpretations that eventually leads to a conclusion. This model is widely used in the field of project management.
Delphi Technique Explanation Using Scenarios
1. When there are several experts and their advice, despite being helpful, varies from that of one another to a great extent.
2. When experts are put up at different geographical locations and cannot come to a common place for discussion or finding a common solution.
The Delphi technique is used to attain expert advice on various technical issues, project-related issues, risk assessment, management issues, and scope related queries, etc. by the means of group decision making.
In the first scenario, using the Delphi technique, one can come to a common solution. The process includes collecting Delphi from each of the experts, evaluating the advice to find commonness in them and eliminate the ones that don’t match with the advice from all. For example, if there are 10 insights, we pick the three top-most insights that seem to be common in the case of all the experts. Then, these 3 insights are further sent as an inquiry and experts are asked for advice. Based on their choices, the insights are further evaluated and zeroed down to one single solution.
In the second case, typically, conducting a poll anonymously and gathering information is done. This is to get the best advice without the involvement of external factors or feelings of fear, judgment or ego, etc. It ensures that the common consensus is attained with equal involvement of advice from all the experts from various parts of the world.
The Delphi technique is often referred to as the “Wide-Band Delphi Technique”. To estimate future results and outcomes, to make estimates in various areas of business, this technique is preferred.
Delphi process is commonly used in creating work breakdown structures and managing project flow.
For instance, cost estimation can be made for a project using the Delphi technique. However, in order to come to a conclusion or solve a problem, a well-defined and informative question has to be framed. The procedure becomes simple the question is properly structured.
The Delphi method is also used for identifying risks and mitigating them.
Delphi Methodology has proven to be one of the most efficient ways of decision-making. To get advice/input from a group of experts, it is essential to have clarity about the issue that is to be discussed. Only then the experts will be able to give thorough guidance on how to proceed and process the issue. The Delphi approach is used by experts to draw a conclusion from group discussions.
Guide to Delphi Method Steps
The procedure goes like this, A common mediator or coordinator is assigned the work of collecting information. Someone who is well acquainted with the concepts of the issue being dealt with is preferred.
The question/issue is circulated to the experts and their inputs are requested whilst maintaining anonymity. This avoids any feelings of an outcast, inferiority or superiority.
The evaluations are collected. After eliminating the odd ones and picking the common inputs, the same are circulated for the second round of evaluation. The experts give their opinions on them and this procedure is repeated until a consensus is reached.
Despite having thousands of tools available online, having expert advice beats every other means of making decisions. Hence, delta techniques are considered to be one of the most trusted and reliable approaches to decision making.
Delphi Analysis enables individuals to understand the perspectives of their group mates in a professional and effective manner.
About the Modified Delphi Method - The Modified Delphi method is a systematic strategy used by group of professionals like team members, stakeholders and others to assess situations and make valuable decisions.
Let's take a look at the steps involved in Delphi Method.
Delphi Technique Steps
Step 1 - Choose a member to lead the discussion
Step 2 - Decide the panel of experts
Step 3 - State the problem or issue of discussion
Step 4 - Start the first round of questionnaire or survey
Step 5 - Summarise the first round and collect common viewpoints
Step 6 - Initiate the second round of questionnaire or survey
Step 7 - Summarise the second round and collect common viewpoints
Step 8 - Initiate and summarise the third round
Step 9 - Continue to conduct rounds of questionnaires based on the requirement
Step 9 - Draw a conclusion based on the findings from all the rounds
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This approach of Delphi estimation can be used to make complex discussions simple. It avoids a clash of opinions and helps experts draw conclusions without any complications.
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